Significant Seismic Swarm At Bárðarbunga Iceland - Magma Intrusion Likely - Aviation Alert Raised To Yellow - Risk Rising
If you have followed my work for a while, then you may have seen the mention of Bardarbunga Volcano in Iceland recently. In addition to being a fun word to say, its a massive volcano centrally located in the country of Iceland, which is also part of a larger complex. It is regarded by some as the mother of all Iceland volcanoes. I have been watching this occur in real time. Last week I saw something that really concerned me from this volcano. An M4.1 earthquake at 0.1 km depth. When a volcano is seismically active, within the volcano, it generally signals magma is on the move. When quakes get progressively shallower over time, it generally means that magma is rising.
I regret not bringing it to your attention then. I did consult some people and they were unconcerned. Not all though, but most. They correctly pointed out that similar larger earthquakes had occurred recently and that it was not a major departure from the norm.
Then today happened...
Over 100 earthquakes have occurred today, certainly a more significant sequence than in the past. IVO states a magma intrusion is underway. They have changed the aviation code to yellow in anticipation of activity. These quakes are coming directly from the caldera. It is the largest sequence of seismic swarm since the last fissure eruption in 2015-2015. You can look into that, it was called the Houlihan Fissure Eruption. Pretty benign despite massive amounts of lava. Iceland is walking the line here because its not known whether this will end up in eruption, but the short term pattern is there, the long term pattern is there, and Iceland as a whole is waking up volcanically. I follow developments here very closely, as Iceland has played a big role in epochs of volcanic activity in the past. This particular volcano is known for the most massive eruption in terms of lava produced within the Holocene or last 10,000 years or so which totaled around 5 cubic miles and also has a VEI6 to its name in 1477. It is a sleeping giant.
But that is not all...
It is covered by a massive glacier. That adds a layer of complexity as well as significant hazards to the entire situation. Water reacts explosively with magma. Furthermore, the risk of a massive glacial flood is firmly in mind. Furthermore, an adjacent volcano, Grimsvotn is also glacier covered, and a glacial flood, locally known as a jokulhap is in progress. They are somewhat a normal occurrence of varying intensity. There have been several large ones in recent years. These are separate volcanoes, but they are connected. Its too early and speculative to say they are related, but leave the door cracked.
The 2014-2015 fissure eruption was spectacular and slightly disruptive but very manageable. It was also very SO2 rich. Its recent behavior over decades leans more towards the effusive side but the VEI6 makes it clear this system is capable of more. The bottom line is that many volcanoes appear to be growing restless in Iceland. The volcanic systems there are complex and intertwined. Activity in one is often related to activity in another.
Let's get a look at the current earthquake activity. The chart shows the last 14 days of activity. Each circle corresponds to a color (magnitude) and a depth as illustrated on the left hand side. I put a red arrow on the shallow earthquake I mention from last week and the ongoing swarm. I will also show the larger charts to capture more comprehensive trends
You can see the current unrest presents differently than any episodes in the past year by comparing the far right hand side with the rest of the chart.
The next image is a layout of Icelands main volcanic systems. I circled both Bardarbunga and Grimsvotn because of the ongoing glacial flood and overall proximity.
Here is an image of the volcano.
I am going to post the advisory issued by IVO
A strong earthquake swarm has started under the volcano this morning at around 6 a.m. local time. More than 100 quakes with magnitudes up to 5.0 have been recorded since. The strongest quake was a 5.0 shock at 08.05 am local time.
The quakes are clustered under the northern part of the large, completely ice-covered Bárðarbunga caldera, and located at depths spanning between 10 km and the surface. This is the strongest seismic activity of the volcano since the preceding seismic activity prior to its massive eruption in 2014-15. The activity closely resembles the pattern of a new magma intrusion, which is likely the cause.
This could (but by no means must) result in a new eruption, even in a very short term. If the eruption starts under the ice shield (where the current intrusion is taking place), it would result in potentially dangerous glacial melt-water floods (known as "jökulhlaups"). It also could lead to significant ash emissions once the erupted lava has melted a hole through the thick ice shield, and allows explosive interaction between magma and water to eject ash into the atmosphere - this in turn would depend on the duration and volume of such eruption.
While it is far from certain what might or might not follow, the aviation alert level of the volcano was raised to yellow and a "Level of Uncertainty" was declared for Bárðarbunga by the Civil Protection. As of the latest information available, activity has slowed during the past few hours.
I have been following the work of a local volcano enthusiast. I am not sure of his official capacity but his work is fantastic. He surveys the volcanoes and essentially assessed them often. He has been talking about Bardbarbunga for quite a while now and the long term pattern of unrest there, as well as from other volcanoes in the region. I appreciate such comprehensive insight and deep knowledge of his country. We all know that since 2021, the region has been described as entering a new era of volcanism. I think most interpreted this to just mean on the Reykjanes peninsula but it goes beyond that.
Here is the problem with modern volcano and to some degree earthquake forecasting. In the last 30-40 years, many volcanoes have woken up. Some engage in constant activity. Others are more sporadic. Others have not erupted yet, but unrest is slowly building. Volcanoes move slowly for the most part. We are seeing patterns of unrest, which are concerning in the long term, but have not led to massive disruption or major eruptions frequently. There is some false security in there because its not about where you are, it is where you are going. I do not side with the Smithsonian when they say that the increase in volcanic activity is nothing more than observational bias and should be disregarded. No thank you. I prefer to read data for what it says. If what they said was true, then volcanic activity should have leveled off after the 1990s as the satellite era fully went into gear in addition to all the networked monitoring worldwide. At the very LEAST, the trend should have slowed as our observational capabilities improved. That has not been the case. Its rising now faster than ever and the big eruptions are starting to tick up as well. I will take no issue with you accepting the company line from them. I was scolded quite a bit by a person for disagreeing with them and accused of fear mongering. It is mainly that I have the audacity to question what the professionals have to say. I am not doing it for the hell of it. They interpret EVERYTHING under uniformity. I question that previously held assumption, otherwise known as an axiom.
I have eyes on it and many others do to. In the mean time Bárðarbunga dudddddde.
Here is some more information on both the Bárðarbunga unrest and Grimsvotn glacial flood in progress. I will also link the videos from the local Icelander providing insight. You have to have a bit of an ear for the accent.
Powerful earthquake swarm begins in Bardarbunga caldera, Iceland
Glacial outburst flood at Grímsvötn volcano, Iceland
Iceland's Largest Volcano Rumbles While The Grindavik Eruption Comes To An End
Unprecedented Situation in Iceland - 9 Volcanoes Waking Up
As I said... Iceland has played a major role in global volcanic episodes in the past and appears well poised to do so again. This is a slow moving process which will play out over years to decades but at the same time, we don't really know what will happen next. Iceland looks to have their hands full locally, but it is yet to be seen what the greater volcano landscape will look like. Since the USGS/Smithsonian will not allow for the data to be interpreted for what it says at this point, you have to do your own analysis. I have made my case about why we should take the data for exactly what it says past a certain point. You decide.
More volcanic news coming today.