TikTok Bet Wrong
Based on the details of the Kalshi contract, the bet would still be ongoing as TikTok has not been officially “prohibited” in the U.S. according to the Payout Criterion. Here’s why: 1. No Effective Prohibition: TikTok voluntarily suspended its operations temporarily, but this does not meet the criterion of an official government prohibition taking effect.
A requirement for ByteDance to divest TikTok’s U.S. operations also does not fulfill the criterion, as noted in the rules.
- Explicit Payout Criteria: For the bet to resolve as “prohibited,” a U.S. federal government action (such as a prohibition under the RESTRICT Act or a similar authority) must have gone into effect.
Simply passing legislation or threatening prohibition does not fulfill the criteria unless the prohibition is enforced by the government and actively blocks TikTok operations in the U.S.
- Expiration Value:
The contract’s outcome relies on official documentation from the Source Agencies (e.g., Federal Register or government websites). Since no official documentation has been released confirming a prohibition as of now, the contract should remain unresolved.
Conclusion:
Unless the U.S. government officially enforces a prohibition on TikTok’s operations before the expiration date, the contract will not meet the Payout Criterion. As of now, the bet appears to remain unresolved and ongoing.