Why I don't think Angelina Jolie will win the Oscar for "Maria"

"Maria" is a Netflix release and many would deem that as a TV movie or a film where its biggest release was on TV.

"Emilia Pérez" is different because it came out in theaters in France. In the US, it was bought by Netflix.

It also doesn't help that Jolie had a bad divorce with Brad Pitt, a popular actor and producer, and many Academy voters vote based on friends and allyship, and I think this will hurt Jolie.