Applying to Neuroscience PhD programs, how competitive of an applicant am I?

I'm a non-traditional applicant applying for admission to neuroscience PhD programs. I feel very confident about my application and I believe it is strong enough to be competitive at some of the most selective universities. However, since I am a non-traditional student, I am not 100% confident about how I compare to other applicants. This is making it a bit difficult to decide where to apply. I know in deciding where to apply that the most important thing to consider is goodness of fit for your research interests. But if all other things are equal between two schools, I'd prefer to apply to the one with the better reputation. At the same time, I do not to be over-confident, apply to only ultra-competitive schools, and end up not getting in anywhere. I've listed the details of my application below and a few of the schools I've decided on and a few others I'm strongly considering. Can those of you who are in the know let me know if my applications are too top-heavy and give me an idea of just how competitive of an applicant I should consider myself?

Demographics

33 y.o. white male, fwiw both my parents have associates degrees but im the first with a bachelor's and will be the first with a PhD

Academic history

Graduated from Johns Hopkins University with a BA in Neuroscience in 2013. (I know, idk why a neuro degree was a bachelor of arts either, I believe they changed it the year after I graduated)

GPA: 3.83, Departmental and General Honors, Dean's list every semester

Graduated with a Master's in Public Health with a concentration in epidemiology from Johns Hopkins in 2022

GPA: 4.0 but half my classes were pass/fail due to COVID

Capstone project was a literature review of molecular mechanisms of pathogenesis in development of Autism Spectrum Disorder

Research/work history

2.5 years of research while in undergrad and for several months after graduating for a lab at the Johns Hopkins Hospital with a neurosurgeon studying glioblastoma multiforme. Included as a mid-level author on 2 published papers

2+ years research as a research tech at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine in a lab studying ALS. Helped on several other studies but no publications. Ran my own independent study which resulted in a poster presentation at the 2015 SFN annual meeting but no publication.

2+ years research as a research tech at the Lieber Institute for Brain Development (part of Johns Hopkins) studying cellular/molecular mechanisms of disease pathogenesis in neurodevelopmental disorders. Included as mid-level author on 1 published paper. Ran my own project but did not publish before I left the lab.

2+ year fellowship at the National Cancer Institute. Epidemiology research on ovarian cancer. By the time I am finished it will have resulted in 2 first-author papers 1 of which was a review and will be included as a mid-level author on 3 other papers which we plan to submit for publication

Letters of rec

1 letter from my PI at the Lieber Institute. He is faculty at Hopkins so idk if that helps me when applying to JHU

1 letter from my PI and another mentor at the NCI/American Cancer Society. PI is the head of the clinical epidemiology unit

I have a good relationship with all three authors so I don't see why they shouldn't be strong letters.

Personal statement/SOP

I believe I have a very strong personal statement. Being a non-traditional applicant I have had plenty of time to think about what I want to do and why. I have very good reasons for wanting to apply to these programs and am very passionate about neuroscience and academia. My background in epidemiology and data science gives me a unique public health perspective on neuro research which can be very useful. I also have kind of a crazy story about a personal struggle with depression. It is not the reason why I am applying to these programs but it has made me extra passionate about neuro research and afforded me an insight into all the things currently wrong with treatment of psychiatric illness in the US from scientific, clinical, and public health standpoints. I actually wrote the first draft of each of my 2 first author papers while in the hospital for depression, although I did not include this info in my application.

Where I'm applying

Submitted application to UCSF yesterday

definitely applying to: Harvard, JHU, Stanford

Strongly considering: MIT, Penn, Michigan, Northwestern, Yale, Duke, Columbia

Others I'm considering: Princeton, UChicago, UT Southwestern, NYU, Cornell, Brown, UVA, UT Austin, UW Madison, Indiana U, UColorado (Aurora), UNC Chapel Hill, UC Berkeley, Vanderbilt, Georgetown, UCSD, Mt Sinai

I'll probably apply to 12-15 schools. Still actively searching for which ones will be a good fit.

Thanks for your help!