New year’s resolutions for NFL playoff teams
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We’ve reached the final week of the NFL season and the calendar year 2025. So, with the playoff participants at least largely established, while I’m generally not a big believer in them personally, I took the opportunity to come up with resolutions for each of the six teams who have already clinched a spot on either side of the bracket.
Since the Denver Broncos, Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals are still fighting for the final Wildcard berth in the AFC and the Atlanta Falcons could still take away the NFC South crown from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the task for them is to just take care of business (and hope for some help). Therefore, I didn’t give them their own paragraph.
For this exercise, I largely focused on personnel usage, schematic details and attitude in how teams should approach future matchups. Let’s dig in:
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AFC:
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Kansas City Chiefs – Take more shots down the field
When you think about the conversations around modern NFL defenses, the oversimplified version often times revolves around all these “two-high coverages” which in reality simply speaks to the pre-snap structure, when match principles are being applied at as high a rate as ever. One of the offenses this movement generally was intended to combat was the early-career Patrick Mahomes Chiefs. However, that was when Tyreek Hill was running by everyone and Andy Reid designed a bunch of deeper-developing concepts. That hasn’t been the case these last couple of years, as they’ve molded themselves into more of an efficient short passing team.
Kansas City faced one of the highest rates of man-coverage last year and are on face to finish third this season (31.5%). To be fair, they’re also fourth in EPA per play vs. man, but something that has simply been missing from this aerial attack are the vertical shots they’re hitting on. Since Patrick Mahomes will likely sit out the regular season finale, he will finish just 12-of-46 on throws of 20+ yards, with four touchdowns and interceptions each. Unless the Miami Dolphins snag the final Wildcard spot, each of the six other quarterbacks on the AFC table will come in with at least 20 such completions – including Russell Wilson, who missed the first month of the season.
While they have two legit speedsters in Hollywood Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy, neither one of them have historically been great deep threats, in large part because they struggle to get off or finish catches through contact. Justin Watson may be the guy who can actually contribute in that capacity. I want to see KC get into heavy-personnel sets and call up a few legit shots plays, where they give those guys running starts, force defenses to work through/around traffic and therefore threaten those areas of those field. We’ve seen some of that these last two weeks and space is starting to feel less condensed for them. That’s when Pat becomes impossible to deal with as he faces more soft zone shells and can just pick at the voids between defenders, along with Travis Kelce finding secondary openings once plays are extended.
Buffalo Bills – Don‘t put everything on Josh
As we transition to the only team who has defeated the Chiefs so far this season, I kind of want to see the opposite for the Bills to a certain degree. Thinking back to all the postseason exits for this group in the Josh Allen era, they largely revolve around the fact that Buffalo’s coaches asked their quarterback to be superman and carry them to victories. Not only have they been outrushed by their opponents by an average of 32.5 yards in their four previous elimination games, but Allen has been the leading rusher of his team in each of those matchups, averaging 63.5 yards on the ground himself. Meanwhile his defense has surrendered 33.5 points per game.
Projecting why things may be different this time around for Buffalo in the tournament, a big reason would be that they’ve not been quite as quarterback-centric, even if that guy is probably about to win his first MVP trophy. The 2024 Bills rank top-six in both rushing success rate (44.9%) and EPA per rush (0.040), with a stable of running backs that bring different skill-sets to the table and a play-caller in Joe Brady who has diversified how they challenge opponents on the ground. That has set the table for Josh ranking just outside the top-ten in pass attempts off RPOs and play-action each, creating more simplistic black-or-white decisions, rather than asking him to drop back and scan the full field – even if he’s certainly capable of executing pure progression concepts.
What kind of got lost in the whole “Bills scored 90 points over two weeks” thing is that their defense also gave up 86 over that stretch and they only went 1-and-1. I’m a big fan of what Sean McDermott has been able to do with Buffalo’s defense and how well-orchestrated/-organized they are in the back-seven, but facing legit contenders in January, I expect them to have their issues consistently creating stops. So, that puts a lot of weight on their offense and rather than ask Josh to keep up, I want to see them dictate pace, give the QB more spacious pockets off run-fakes and take advantage of all four downs while not just putting that guy in the shotgun.
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Baltimore Ravens – Keep dictating terms defensively
It’s kind of funny to look at the 2024 season for the Ravens defense. Obviously, they were a top-two unit in both DVOA and EPA per play last year, but with the exit of defensive coordinator and now-Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald, it was fair to question if they could keep up that level of play. That was only enhanced by the departure of multiple key assistants, who are now coordinating different units around the league. Through the first eight weeks of this season, they ranked 26th in EPA per play as a unit (0.084). Since then, they are third(!) in that metric (-0.078).
There are multiple reasons for their turnaround. Number one would be personnel-based – their massive issues at safety necessitated Kyle Hamilton moving back deep from his big nickel role, which has stabilized their back-end. Meanwhile, the usage of Ar’Darius Washington has seen a gradual uptick throughout the year, where he was about to log 100% of snaps for a sixth straight week if not how badly they blew out the Texans on Christmas day. Overarching for that group, it has just taken a while to merge into this system, which generally consists of the same front and coverage combinations, but we don’t have insight into the day-to-day operation and how they might’ve adjusted communication under new DC Chris Orr. And thirdly, while there haven’t been any fundamental changes in their play-calling, I do believe they’ve become more aggressive with forcing opponents to adjust to them rather than constantly being responsive.
Now, a certain level of volatility will remain with this unit as we’ve seen Roquan Smith’s presence in coverage not be as palpable and Brandon Stephens at one of those outside corner spots struggle with finding or muss less playing the ball in the air on vertical throws. So, if the answer at moments is to bring extra pressure, you run the risk of guys being vulnerable in isolated situations. Still, this Ravens defense is at its best when they attack protection schemes, force opponents to make adjustments at the line and then create hesitancy for quarterbacks as the picture changes post-snap. That type of approach held the Chiefs scoreless in the second half of last year’s AFC Championship for example, while the more conservative version for Baltimore gave up 27 points in this season’s kickoff game.
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Pittsburgh Steelers - Make Jaylen Warren the central piece on offense
If the Texans have been the least inspiring AFC playoff teams for the majority of 2024, the Steelers are the group that has fallen off the most over the last three weeks. Their performances may not have been quite as bad as the final scores would indicate, based on a few pivotal moments not going their way, but they did get outscored 90-to-40 by the three legit Super Bowl contenders they’ve faced this year (Eagles, Ravens – although they did win the first matchup at home, and Chiefs). We can identify some recent issues defensively, but the main issue to me has been a lack of identity on offense.
Since Russell Wilson was inserted into the lineup a month into the season, Pittsburgh was an above-average unit in dropback EPA, as they were hitting on some shots outside the numbers, they got the veteran QB to throw up the seams and check the ball down. With George Pickens either out of the lineup or disconnected on certain calls, their effectiveness took a bump and it make more apparent that they still only rank 25th in rushing success rate (37.2%). With a quarterback who best operates off play-action and two of your three running backs at this point probably running in a 40 in the 4.7s to not be major threats even if they have an open lane, that separation between the two phases of your offense becomes more pronounced.
To me, the solution has to be featuring your most dynamic weapon more extensively – and that’s Jaylen Warren. These past two games have been the first in which he “out-touched” Najee Harris, and even if you look at the rushing total against the Chiefs, it tells a false story, since Najee gained the majority of his yardage on their final drive against a Pro Bowl-level effort defense. In terms of real production, Warren has combined for 204 scrimmage yards on 33 opportunities across that two-week stretch. He simply offers a different level of “juice” exploding through the hole after hesitating behind his blocks, evading tacklers as a dump-off option, what he can provide in the screen game, yet he’s also probably their best pass-protecting back. If Pittsburgh intends to win at least one postseason contest, their offense needs to run through him and a dialed-in Pickens.
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Houston Texans - Get in the lab with your offense
Looking at the entire NFL playoff field, no team may be less inspiring than these Texans right now. Considering the hype around this franchise coming into the year, that’s almost not comprehendible, especially if you had said that they’d rank second in schedule-adjusted DVOA. However, that’s how anemic their C.J. Stroud and company have been for the most part on the opposite side of the ball. Here are the only seven teams that are behind them in that same metric on offense – Bears, Giants, Panthers, Raiders, Patriots, Titans and Browns. All of those would pick inside the top-ten in the draft started today.
On the surface, if I told you that Houston would lose two of their top three receivers in Stefon Diggs and more recently Tank Dell to injured reserve, you may give them some lenience, but there have been underlying issues for this attack all year long. Before talking about anything else, this offensive line needs to be put under the microscope. Every single week you have multiple missed assignments, where they fail at passing off a simple twist or someone different loses their individual matchup on consecutive snaps. That’s the core of all their issues, but there was basically no improvement in Houston’s early-down rushing success rate and their play-action game has been less dangerous as a result with opponents are able to defend them. As a result, they find themselves in third-and-long constantly and while he’s definitely still also behind OC Bobby Slowik, with how little he provides them with schematic advantages, their issues are compounded by C.J. Stroud. His composure has not been the same and we’ve seen miss throws uncharacteristic to what he showed as last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year.
What I want to see the Texans do after a couple of rough weeks now is use what basically a two-week window – considering they’re already locked into the number four seed – to self-scout themselves. Figure out more creative ways to get the ball in the hands of your superstar receiver Nico Collins. Copy some of the ways Slowik’s former boss Kyle Shanahan and some other of his disciples have boosted the run game with movement at the snap. Scrap your protection plans and if you end having to full-line slide on a bunch of key third downs, I’d rather ask Joe Mixon/Dare Ogunbowale to pick up a defensive end than those guys on the interior figure out complex pressure packages. My belief is as low as ever, but I think if you throw some stuff at your opponents, they haven’t really seen all year, in a one-game-sample with Stroud at the helm, they could at least win one Wildcard contest.
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Los Angeles Chargers - Let Jesse Minter cook
What Jim Harbaugh has been able to build in Los Angeles in his first year back in the NFL has been quite remarkable. If the Chargers were to win what could be a completely meaningless week 18 matchup against the Raiders, if the Steelers take care of business Saturday night, they would finish with their second-best record over the last 15 years. And they did so with more big-name departures than additions compared to a roster that had just gone 5-12 the season prior. We can definitely have a conversation about how well Justin Herbert has performed with a competent coaching staff and look at the valiant contributions of their initial draft class, but a key figure in their turnaround is the defensive coordinator Harbaugh brought along with him from Michigan.
Looking at Jesse Minter’s background, as I went into more detail in my video on “pivotal figures heading into the 2024 season”, he’s based in the Rex Ryan/Dean Pees school of defense, while he and now-Seattle head coach Mike Macdonald basically streamlined communication and play-calls of this system, in order to make it more flexible. Still, while that approach has made it easier to get all 11 players on the same page, the complexity in combinations of pressures with coverages if you want to get into depth, can create some miscues. As I reflect on what has allowed them to be a top-seven unit in both EPA per play and success rate, it’s how well organized they’ve been as a unit with subtle wrinkles that provide them advantages but still play fast.
Now that they’ve reached this point, it’s time to kick things into another year. As good as they’ve been over the course of their schedule altogether, they’ve gotten into shootouts against the explosive offenses they’ve faced over the latter half of it. They do manufacture one-on-ones for their defensive linemen by mugging up linebackers and have involved Derwin James more as a blitzer as of recent as part of their third-down packages. Having said that, I want the soundness with which they play to be complemented by more aggressive calls in order to create a few negative plays and put opponents behind the chains. Otherwise, as good as Herbert has been, the Bolts offense lacks the firepower among their skill-position group to keep up with those high-end attacks.
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Detroit Lions - Diversify your pressure packages
On the opposite side of the bracket, the Lions have had a lot more dominant stretches throughout the season compared to Kansas City coming through in all of these one-possession games. However, they aren’t playing their best football at this stage of the calendar, largely based on the ailments on the defensive side of the ball especially, with five starters and several rotational pieces placed on injured reserve by now. They’ve largely been able to overcome those and are now one divisional win over the Vikings on Sunday night away from making sure the NFC playoffs run through Detroit, with how prolific their offense has been, but in order to go all the way, some changes defensively will be necessary.
Comparing last year’s defense to what Detroit has been like in 2024, they’ve gone from average at best to the top-ten in the majority of metrics. Yet, they’ve surrendered an average of 32.5 points per game over the last month as injuries have continued to pile up. The area of that unit I’ve been really impressed with is the secondary, in particular the way they communicate, adjust how they match pre-snap based on motions or then pass off assignments mid-play. That’s why a 40-yard completion by the 49ers last week jumped out to me as much as it did, when two Lions DBs messed up by both going with the same man releasing out of a bunch their opponents had created. If that’s a sign of things to come because they’re down bodies, I’d be worried altogether. For now, I’m willing to give defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn the benefit of the doubt, but I want to see more variety up front.
Even without Alim McNeill I feel pretty good about Detroit’s ability to defend the run on early downs. And I’d never advise a team to divorce their pass-rush from their coverage, but I’d like them to think of those two as somewhat different entities if they can keep up their typical level of excellent on the back-end to account for all the eligibles. That could free them up to help out their depleted front by involving their linebacker more as blitz threats, maybe incorporate some pick stunts that require further adjustments and at least give opponents more to think about, which would take away from their ability to use that extra blocker even if the Lions ultimately only bring four rushers.
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Philadelphia Eagles - Throw the ball to Saquon Barkley
As a Saquon f4ntasy owners (and champion), I don’t have a whole lot to complain about. He just cracked the 2000-yard rushing mark and even with all the one-yard tush push touchdown for Philadelphia’s quarterback(s), the standout running back has reached the end-zone 15 times. With that in mind, never has this guy been less involved in the passing game than this year. Outside of 2020, when he tore his ACL two games into the season, Barkley’s 33 catches and 43 targets would both be career-lows. Only once was he targeted five times and in just five contests did he finish with more than two catches. That seems pretty wild considering what he’s capable of doing to defenders in space, as evidenced by the crazy spin-and-backwards hurdle play midway through the year.
The reason he’s been as underutilized through that avenue is twofold – offensive coordinator Kellen Moore hasn’t made it a big enough priority to design plays specifically for him as a receiver and Jalen Hurts has historically never thrown his backs the ball a whole lot. The latter has been rather frustrating not only because of personal reasons (including my betting his receiving props on multiple occasions) but also in the context of a healthy offense. Philadelphia runs a ton of RPOs and first-read concepts for Jalen Hurts, but with one of the premiere WR duos in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, whenever they do go to true dropbacks, it creates a lot of space underneath for Saquon. Nonetheless, the QB almost refuses to dump the ball off, in favor of becoming his own checkdown – which still has been effective for the most part. Looking at the results of many of those plays, that did leave plenty of yardage and even touchdowns on the board however.
At the same time, while OC Kellen Moore has generally been average with his usage of RB screens, they’ve been very productive under him generally. That’s something we just haven’t seen enough of this year. Saquon did have long touchdown catches against the Packers and Jaguars over the course of the first eight weeks, where he was able to blow by linebackers on wheel routes, but he’s only even targeted four(!) other times on 10+ yards past the line of scrimmage. Clearing out space to create those isolated matchups for him, actually making him a part of the progression and giving Jalen a clearer path to work “1-2-checkdown” could go a long way in taking this offense one step further.
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Los Angeles Rams - Re-commit to the downhill rushing attack
For the Rams, I also want to talk about their usage of running backs, but more so on the ground. Funnily enough, I think you could make a case for involving Kyren Williams more as a check-and-release option in your protection plans, since his per-game numbers as a receiver are slightly down from last year, but this point is more about how I envisioned this offense to look like before the year kicked off. Their workhorse back is actually second in total carries and third in rushing yards, but overall, the team ranks just 23rd in that latter category (1681 rushing yards) and 30th in yards per attempt (3.9).
When I made my case for the Rams finishing as a top-three seed in the NFC (which they’re now locked into number three) as an 11-win squad, the first thing I brought up after mentioning better health compared to 2023, was their interior offensive line, which collectively weighed 1000 pounds and was going to go after defenses with Kyren Williams running downhill. When you look at where they had previously excelled, they were one of the most efficient offenses at running “duo” concepts and now with Jonah Jackson coming over from Detroit, they had become even stronger in those areas where they create double-teams and create movement at the point of attack, with Kyren being one of the best runners at playing with the eyes of linebackers and forcing those guys to leverage themselves incorrectly. Now with the addition of third-round pick Blake Corum as almost a clone coming out of Michigan, with his pacing and comfort in working through condensed areas, I expected this to become a dominant one-two-punch. The rookie has only carried the rock 56 times however.
The main reason they haven’t been as productive in that area is all the re-shuffling on the offensive line, as Kevin Dotson has played 100% of snaps but rookie Beaux Limmer had to acclimate to the NFL when he was thrown in at center earlier than expected and then four other guys have logged at least 19% of snaps at the other guard spot. That’s along with both starting tackles also missing time. Now with the start of 2025, it appears all their intended front-five should be fully intact and I believe L.A. should build their attack through that vertically-oriented ground game. Off that, they could marginalize some of the issues they’ve had in protection, taking pressure off those edges on play-action and also don’t ask Puka Nacua to win as much in defined dropback situations, with Cooper Kupp slowing down as part of a marginal ancillary receiving corp.
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Minnesota Vikings - Use more heavy personnel on offense
While I listed all of these teams by their current place in the standings, understanding that the Vikes are a home win over the Lions away from securing the number one seed in the NFC. So there isn’t a ton they need to overhaul, especially considering they aren’t as banged up as their division rivals at this stage of the calendar. Having said that, if there was one area of their team that can still bring some volatility, it’s when they are put in gamescripts where they tend to spread out offensive formations and ask Sam Darnold to drop back extensively. In no way am I trying to diminishing to metamorphosis that has been his seventh year in the league, because he’s provided an abundance of big plays in and out of structure, but where I’d separate him from the elite quarterbacks is that his style of play can feel somewhat erratic, where he’ll sail a pass or try to fit balls into extra-tight windows, without the calmest feet you’re going to see.
Similarly to the Eagles, Minnesota has reached a point, where their tandem of wideouts in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison is about as good as any, and even their number three Jalen Nailor has some really bright moments. Having said that, I believe they are at their best as a multi-faceted attack, where they can big or small, since Kevin O’Connell can attack defenses in so many ways when they’re the ones dictating terms. He may be rooted in his experience with Sean McVay, but when they are forced to or lend too much into operating from 11 personnel, I don’t love how that matches with the strengths of his quarterback necessarily.
At least philosophically from watching them all season, I feel like the Vikings have been most effective running the ball from two-tight-end sets and also putting fullback C.J. Ham in I-formation. Paired with that, I really like taking the mental load off Sam when he’s put under center and you move the launch-point for him on bootlegs, where he’s just asked to read high-to-low and find easy completions. KOC excels at involving their receivers as sweep threats and then also leaking into the flats, to give them a more dynamic threats against second-level defenders having to redirect off run-fakes. Along with calling up heavy play-fake shots on early downs, I believe it would take away from opponents being able to manufacture complex defensive structures. Plus, they can still spread out the formation from pro personnel groupings, with how flexible all their eligibles are in terms of their where they’re comfortable aligning.
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Washington Commanders - Dial down single-high coverages
Considering the general pre-season expectations for this Washington operation, having just selected their quarterback of the future with the second overall draft pick, with an entirely new coaching staff, there’s no doubt that they’ve done a lot of things right in order to turn things around as quickly as they have. The offense especially, ranking top-six in both EPA per play and success rate, has been so much more efficient than anyone could’ve hoped for. Jayden Daniels has erased one of my main doubts in working the middle of the field and Kliff Kingsbury has done an excellent job of enhancing his strengths while not requiring a whole lot of complexity in the passing game especially, with all the RPOs and screens (alerts) they’ve incorporated.
With that pushed aside, the defense has been a bit more of a rollercoaster ride, where you can almost split the season up into thirds, during which they’ve looked like a bottom-five unit in the front- and back-end of those, with a stretch in-between those, where turnovers swung in their favor and they were able to benefit from opponents that were forced to keep up with Washington’s own attack. Overall, that puts them between 19th and 24th in the three major analytical metrics I like to bring up (DVOA, EPA per play and success rate). Marshon Lattimore has only appeared in two games since they traded for him at the deadline, with a vulnerable group of cover-guys outside of him, their linebacker group struggles moving backwards and they don’t have any pass-rushers they can consistently rely upon to create havoc.
With how good the Commanders offense has been at maintaining drive, using all four downs and Jayden being a nightmare at converting with his legs, they don’t need to a game-changing unit on the other side of the ball – they just can’t allow opponents to have success in so many ways. While Lattimore hopefully being back for a potential postseason run should help, it’s just too easy at least to one side of the field when you can snap off routes against corners having to bail to a deep third, or asking some safety to hold up for more than 2.5 seconds in isolated matchups with backs or tight-ends, as you lack the rush to get home. Through 17 weeks, Washington has used single-high coverages on 60.8% of snaps (right at the top-ten league-wide) – and they’re below-average in their disguise rate as well. Not only does that emphasize the weakest pieces of that unit, but to me it also weakens their ability to defend perimeter runs, since you don’t have two guys deep with leverage coming down the alley. Dan Quinn’s biggest issue come January has typically been their simplicity and how much he’s allowed opponents to impose their style of play on them. Starting in those two-high looks would still allow them to add a plus one into the box late against more vertically-oriented running teams.
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Green Bay Packers - Install more man-beaters in the passing game
Finally, I will switch back to the offensive side of the ball for a Packers team that has actually been top-seven in both dropback and rush EPA with one more game to play. Me focusing more on them rather than their defense may be surprising to some people, but that group quietly ranks fourth(!) if you combine both those areas. I don’t necessarily agree with them being a real difference-making unit, without those splash guys up front or plastering corners, now especially with Jaire Alexander likely being out until the Super Bowl, if they ultimately make it that far. However, with the success they’ve had on offense since the transition to Jordan Love at quarterback last year, something that has been overlooked is how unproven the individual pieces on the other end of his passes still are.
Because of how inexperienced that collection of names was coming into 2023 and how little that organization has invested financially, made the quick turnaround as impressive as it was. Nonetheless, they don’t really have guys on the perimeter who they can rely upon to win their matchups at a high rate. Dontayvion Wicks has the profile closest to a “man-beater” with his route-running skills, but he hasn’t been dependable enough with his hands to finish those plays. Jayden Reed was the most involved over the first half of the season, as the player they’d routinely put in motion and worked all three levels of the field with, but as many f4ntasy players got to experienced, his production has seen a quite drastic drop-off. A healthy Christian Watson would at least scare opponents with his speed.
Green Bay’s offense has been as effective thanks in large part to exceptional head coach Matt LaFleur has been at designing plays with little wrinkles and variations of previous iterations that truly kept opponents guessing. That’s paired with Jordan Love’s aggressiveness as a decision-maker, that has generally outweighed the bad end of the spectrum with turnover-worthy plays. After watching the Vikings call their highest rate of man-coverage all season this past week and largely gloving up their receivers, I believe their play-caller faces the next challenge. They’ll need to implement concepts that challenge secondaries to change assignments through pre-snap movements and then stick to their guys on rubs and routes where they have extensive space to work. Not getting into catch-up mode as early as they have done against Minnesota twice for example will be key, since it’s easier to attack such defenses when the run is also a threat, but more answers when they face obvious passing downs has to be a focus too.
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