Best Actress - BP noms changed everything?

Call me delusional, but the more I think about the nominations, the more I believe that Moore's not safe anymore and Fernanda Torres might actually have a shot at winning Best Actress this year.

Hear me out: if I'm Still Here had only been nominated for Best International Feature and Best Actress, I’d agree her chances were slim. But the surprise Best Picture nod changes everything imo — it's a great film, sure, but it really feels like her performance carried the film to that nomination, especially since it didn’t get recognized in any technical categories (not even Adapted Screenplay, despite winning at Cannes).

And ok, apart from the Oscars, her only major nod is the Globes. But let’s be real: most voters likely hadn’t even seen the movie before her Globe win. It’s a smaller, foreign-language film with limited U.S. release — not exactly at the top of voters’ must-watch lists.

But now, with those noms and with the movie just about getting a wider distribution, I think she has a real chance. Against all odds, but definitely not hopeless.

I guess it will depend on how SPC manages the campaign. What do you think?